What is happening today can be described as the Devaluation of Jokowi. Like a currency, Jokowi is losing his value. However, someday, if his political fundamentals become strong again, his value could rise.
Based on three indicators—political influence, political access, and political resources—there are three possible scenarios that Jokowi and PSI could pursue:
Step Back
Gibran is predicted to step down from his position as vice president. The political influence and networks of PSI and the Jokowi family could automatically be cut off. They may go into hiding for a while, step back from the political spotlight, and take time to prepare for the 2029 election.
Moreover, they still have substantial political resources that could be mobilized to prepare Gibran and other family members for the 2029 election.
While operating behind the scenes, Jokowi could position himself as an opposition figure, criticizing Prabowo’s policies through alliances with civil society groups. In Javanese, this strategy is known as nabok nyilih tangan—literally, hitting someone using another person’s hand, or using a proxy to achieve one’s political objectives.
Comeback
Kaesang and Kahiyang have significant opportunities to represent the Jokowi family as its new faces and offer fresh hope to their father’s supporters.
Kaesang has been positioned as a potential legislative candidate and already holds a strategic position within PSI. Meanwhile, Kahiyang is increasingly visible accompanying Jokowi on his public appearances.
With sufficient financial backing and political influence, Kaesang and Kahiyang could emerge as the new faces of the family and become a fresh source of hope for its political supporters.
Win-Back
Leveraging their father’s political capital, Kaesang and Kahiyang could become new political challengers by targeting two different voter segments.
Kaesang could target the santri segment (students of Islamic boarding schools) by leveraging Jokowi’s legacy of support for Islamic boarding schools.
In 2026, Kaesang has reportedly visited more than 35 Islamic boarding schools across Indonesia, accompanied by Ahmad Ali, Gus Muwafiq in the Central Java and Yogyakarta regions, and Gus Iqdam in East Java.
Meanwhile, Kahiyang could be positioned to target the female voter segment. []