As a political figure, the name “Jokowi” carries considerable political weight, particularly during election campaigns. In fact, Jokowi played a significant role in Prabowo’s election as President of Indonesia. Many people argued that Prabowo’s victory was partly driven by Jokowi’s political support, especially through his endorsement of his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo’s running mate.
Now, since early October, there has been a growing effort to diminish Jokowi’s political standing. I call this phenomenon “The Devaluation of Jokowi.” It refers to the gradual erosion of Jokowi’s political capital, both in mainstream media and on social media. This process has been marked by several controversies, including the university degree controversy, the issues surrounding Gibran, and, most recently, the wiretapping allegations linked to Jokowi.
As a result, the public has witnessed what appears to be a political drama between the Hambalang and Solo camps unfolding at the national level. The latest episode involves allegations implicating three police generals in a wiretapping case involving President Prabowo Subianto.
What appears to be a surprise attack may actually be a carefully orchestrated political move. Quietly and gradually, Prabowo seems to have begun positioning himself against Jokowi, who was once instrumental in his rise to the presidency. The underlying objective may be to secure the political landscape ahead of the 2029 election.
Jokowi is widely perceived as a potential political heavyweight in 2029. He could become one of Prabowo’s toughest political challengers. In this context, Jokowi appears to be a potential rival whose political influence is gradually being weakened.
This, however, creates a paradox in Prabowo’s political thinking. His well-known principle is that “a thousand friends are too few, and one enemy is too many.” He has repeatedly emphasized the importance of avoiding political divisions among the elite. So, why does Jokowi now appear to be a threat?
Old Rivals
Jokowi and Prabowo have been political rivals since the 2014 presidential election. Interestingly, Jokowi’s political journey to the Jakarta governorship was supported by Prabowo. However, their political paths eventually diverged, and Jokowi went on to defeat Prabowo in the 2014 presidential election.
Their status as old rivals may have left unresolved political tensions. When Prabowo joined Jokowi’s cabinet in 2019, it marked an unusual political transformation: from rivals to allies.
But today, the political equation has changed. Prabowo is now the president with executive power, while Jokowi is a former president whose political influence appears to be gradually diminishing amid a series of political controversies.
Rivalry in 2029
Prabowo may face a political challenge from Jokowi in the run-up to the 2029 election. The political contest could be intense. Prabowo will seek to maintain his incumbency, while Jokowi may attempt to demonstrate the enduring power of the “Jokowi Effect” through his political influence over the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI).
To weaken Jokowi’s political influence, Prabowo appears to be reshaping the political dynamics within his inner circle. Several key figures, including Pratikno and Listyo Sigit, have been associated with the Jokowi administration. Any changes involving these figures could send a political signal that Prabowo intends to consolidate his own political coalition without relying on Jokowi’s influence.
Leadership Succession
The 2029 election will be crucial for both Prabowo and Jokowi, particularly in determining their respective political legacies and succession strategies.
Both leaders have a significant political mission: shaping the next generation of leadership.
Prabowo may seek to groom Gerindra figures who stand alongside him in 2029 to carry the party’s political agenda forward in 2034. Meanwhile, Jokowi appears to have his own succession concerns, particularly regarding his sons, Gibran and Kaesang.
Ultimately, the political contest ahead of 2029 may not simply be about who wins the presidency. It could also be about who controls the political legacy, influence, and succession of power in Indonesia. []
Foto Cover: Kompas